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Elections, intelligence and Technology

Exposing and unpacking the next frontline of an invisible but highly destructive war on democracy.

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Intelwatch´s election project focuses on systemic issues that result in the use of intelligence and private espionage efforts to derail democratic reforms, stifle opposition and use elections as a way of entrenching authoritarianism. Africa is holding 19 elections this year which makes our work more pressing given past irregularities connected with technology and foreign interference. Authoritarian regimes holding elections use various  tools to interfere and change results: Electronic surveillance, social media monitoring, bulk and targeted interception, spyware used on opposition and human rights activists,  human intelligence to infiltrate and sabotage movements, the use of biometrics to confuse processes, voter profiling to disenfranchise opposition supporters, misinformation and propaganda to incite fear, and algorithms used during the tabulation process to alter results. Exposing these practices and advocating for international and regional observation missions to consider expertise in this field are important. Preparing civil society, activists, opposition parties and electoral commissions (tasked with ensuring fair elections) to detect and counter these manoeuvres is key to electoral integrity. One crucial stronghold, in the defence of democracy, has been the resilience of civil society. Recent examples from Brazil, Kenya and Zambia underscore the pivotal role civil society plays in ensuring fair elections and upholding their integrity, often in collaboration with electoral authorities or constitutional courts. Because of this, the focus on supporting civil society and social movements is a defining aspect of this project. This project seeks to impact the landscape of combating election fraud and the silencing of opposing voices calling for reform. In doing so, the programme will be focused on contributing to three specific strategic outcomes, namely:

  1. Enhanced knowledge and understanding of threats to electoral integrity among relevant national,  regional and international  stakeholders
  2. Setting parameters that help differentiate state-managed exercises from competitive, free, fair and transparent elections.
  3. Improved national and regional cooperative capacities to address threats to democracy, prevent post-electoral conflict and enhance social mobilization  through campaigning and civil society capacity-building.

The first report for this project will be published soon. It focuses on the South African elections of May 2024 and the role played by Russia in creating chaos and disinformation, divisions within the political class, and sowing incentives for further corruption.

The second forthcoming report will be on the Mozambican elections of October 2024.

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